Migration, skills shortages and AI: Rethinking the way we work

Daniel Marino supervises machinery at a coal-fired power plant in Canada, earning 62,000 Canadian dollars a year. Good money for a good job – but the technician is still looking for a new challenge. On his digital profile are the 29 skills that Marino brings to the table for a job change. The coal expert’s best option is to look for a job as a solar technician: Marino has 72 percent of the required skills and could expect a salary increase to 70,000 dollars.

Apply skills where they are needed

Behind Marino's digital profile and the precise analysis of his opportunities is the US company SkyHive. The start-up, in which Deutsche Bank has a stake, uses an AI-based system to analyse labour market-relevant data from more than 200 countries and in 86 languages – from job profiles to annual reports to patent applications. This provides a powerful insight into global labour markets.

"We're using SkyHive to bring in-demand skills exactly where they're needed," says Rachel Sumner, Managing Director of HR services firm Talent, which is supporting the massive transformation of Canada's energy industry on behalf of the Canadian government.

Shortage of experts slows down innovation and growth worldwide

The figures are alarming: whether in North America, Singapore or Portugal, whether in the energy industry, IT, telecommunications or the construction industry: skilled workers are in short supply in many countries and industries around the world.

According to a study by the World Economic Forum (WEF), by 2025 there will be a shortage of skilled workers in more than half of all industries worldwide. Last year, 77 percent of all employers worldwide complained of difficulties in finding the talent they needed, according to a study by the personnel service provider Manpower. At the same time, a lack of skilled workers is becoming an obstacle to further business development for many companies. Workers need targeted further training in order to adapt their skills to new tasks and according to the WEF, six out of ten employees will need further training by 2027. 

A shortage of experts is slowing innovation and growth worldwide

The figures show that companies, or even entire economies, have rarely faced greater challenges in setting the right course and thus creating the conditions for more economic growth and greater prosperity. Rarely have the solutions been more complicated to find and more complex, at all levels. It’s clear that the ever-widening gap in skilled workers threatens to slow down innovation and curb economic growth.

"The problem has many facets," says Marc Schattenberg of Deutsche Bank Research. "Sectors of the economy that are very labour-intensive, such as social professions, are particularly affected. And many countries are engaged in a global competition for these workers."

In the first half of 2022 alone, German companies were unable to fill around 45 percent of their positions for skilled workers – double the rate of 10 years earlier, according to a study by the Institute for Employment Research (IAB). The situation does not appear to be improving: according to the German Federal Ministry of Economics, 352 out of 801 occupational groups complained of a shortage of skilled workers in 2023 - a rate of 44 percent.

Many countries are engaged in a global competition for workers. Marc Schattenberg, Deutsche Bank Research

So, what can we do to break the vicious circle?

What can politics, what can companies do, what can each individual contribute to overcoming this dilemma? Can migration or new technologies close the gap in the long term? And how do we find our way to an efficient and at the same time humane way of creating value? In other words, a scenario in which hardware and software take work away from people and give them more freedom for creative value creation?

Migration as a lifeline?

With the Skilled Workers Immigration Act passed in the Bundestag in June 2023, the German government wants to create incentives for qualified immigrants, prospects for rejected asylum seekers and the strengthening of education and training. Anyone who can show a degree recognised in Germany should be able to pursue any qualified employment in the future. Accordingly, a mechanic should also be able to work as, for instance, a logistician. Employers will be given more autonomy to decide whether language skills are sufficient for the job, and immigrants "with potential" will be able to apply for a so-called "opportunity card", following the example of Canada and Australia. According to the draft law, the Federal Government expects 60,000 new skilled workers from this measure alone.

Jobturbo AI?

Artificial intelligence could also be at least part of the answer to these questions. The consulting firm McKinsey predicts that generative AI could contribute up to 4.4 trillion US dollars annually to global value creation. The German economy could also benefit from this technological boost: by 2040, German gross domestic product could increase by up to 585 billion euros thanks to AI – an increase of 13 percent.

How AI is revolutionising the media industry

Something currently in its infancy but which could become more and more commonplace in future is happening at BurdaForward, a Munich-based publishing group, where artificial intelligence is playing an increasingly important role.

We don’t need humans to write summaries and quick news bites, but we do need people to double check that information. Oliver Markert, BurdaForward

“We don’t need humans to write summaries and quick news bites, but we do need people to double check that information, to track down sources,” explains Oliver Markert, responsible for creative innovation at BurdaForward, in an interview with WhatNext. “Parts of the craft can be done by technology: with the help of AI, we assemble the information – short message, long message, audio, video, with images. We know how a long article for FOCUS online differs from an article for BUNTE.de or CHIP.de. We only have to make this statistical AI mould once. Content can then be poured into the mould, so to speak, and produced as on an assembly line. Human intelligence and diligence will then be responsible for the final, all-important quality check”. 

Medical education via video

The start-up MIA Video proves that sometimes even comparatively simple technologies can alleviate the shortage of skilled workers. The company produces easy-to-understand short films that inform patients about essential aspects before a preliminary discussion about an operation with a doctor. This frees up space for the essentials: "Empathetic conversations that focus on the individual needs of the patient are at the heart and soul of medicine," says physician and MIA Co-Founder Paul Romanski, who knows the problem of the shortage of skilled workers in medicine and nursing first-hand from his work as a senior physician.

The complexity of the challenges is matched by the diversity of solutions in industries and countries, companies and economies. Schattenberg is convinced that it is necessary to find solutions and not to leave things to develop unchecked. “If we don't take care of the supply of skilled workers, we have a problem. The consequences could be stagnation and declining competitiveness.”

So, the time is ripe to rethink work.