Economic outlook for the Year of the Dragon

Sameer Goel, Deutsche Bank’s Global Head of Emerging Markets & APAC Research, discusses the outlook for the year of the dragon in this dbAsiaInsights video.

You can also read the full transcript of the video here: 

Q: What are some of the traits of a Dragon that relate to the key themes for the coming year?

 The Dragon is seen as the most powerful and auspicious among animals in the Chinese Zodiac, representing strength, good luck and change. We can all do with some good luck as we finally move past the boom-bust pattern forced by the pandemic, but face multiple global conflicts and an unpredictable macro environment. 2024 is in fact Year of the Wood Dragon, and which is believed to combine the power of a dragon with creativity which wood represents. We will need that creativity and innovation – like with AI – to navigate an increasingly complex world.

Q: How should investors approach Year of the Dragon?

If policy makers are able to land the global economy safely this year, Asia should benefit from the same, with tailwinds in particular from pent up demand for electronics, and given underinvestment in Asian assets from over the pandemic years. The timing and sequencing of recovery in China will be important, of course. We think the business cycle in China has bottomed out, but will need stronger policy support to turn expectations, spending and growth into a virtuous loop.

Q: What should investors watch out for in terms of risks?

We will see a flurry of electoral activity this year, both in Asia and outside, and which will be important for the outlook on stability and continuity of policy, as well as for how conflicts impact key economic inputs for the region, like the price of energy.