Economic outlook for the Year of the Snake

Deutsche Bank’s Global Head of Emerging Markets & APAC Research discusses opportunities and risks for the year

This Lunar New Year ushers in the Year of the Snake. The Chinese Zodiac associates the snake with wisdom, transformation, and with 2025 being the Year of the Wooden Snake. Our APAC Head of Research, Sameer Goel, shares his insights on what this could mean for investors in this dbAsiaInsights video.

Sameer highlights the snake's association with wisdom, transformation, creativity, and flexibility – traits that will be essential for navigating the evolving global landscape. He anticipates a year of both opportunities and volatility, particularly influenced by US policy shifts, tariff dynamics, and China's fiscal approach.

You can also read the full transcript of the video here:

What are some of the traits of a snake that relate to the key themes for the coming year?

The snake, according to the Chinese Zodiac, is associated with wisdom and transformation. 2025 is in fact Year of the Wooden Snake. The wood element is believed to add creativity and flexibility to the mix. These are all traits which I suspect would be much in demand in the coming year as we navigate the global macro and geopolitical landscape that is set to be reshaped by the new US administration.

How should investors approach the Year of the Snake?

There will likely be plenty of opportunities, but also likely fatter tails. Investors will need to be cautious and nimble as we try to anticipate what policy shifts lie ahead of us. For Asia, the most important drivers for the year will be how the tariff policy evolves, and when and if China shifts up its fiscal support to the economy. Asia should benefit from the positive fiscal and deregulation growth shocks to the US economy. Equally though, US exceptionalism will likely mean continuation of higher rates and a stronger dollar, which can put strain on Asian balance sheets.

What are the key risks and opportunities in the Year of the Snake?

Against a macro backdrop which will likely have plenty of twists and turns, the economies that will likely do better will be the ones with higher real rates, lower dependence on global capital, stronger institutions, friendlier political cycles, and those that rely more on domestic demand vs global trade. In Asia, markets like India, and possibly Malaysia, should offer more decorrelated returns in such an environment. As global trade dynamics shift and new partnerships emerge, we will witness the rise of new trade corridors, such as between the Middle East and Asia. Investment will inevitably follow, driving demand for innovative financing solutions to support expansion of these trade routes. The other trend to watch for will be as technological advancements, particularly in AI, drive significant shifts in consumer behaviour, and increase reliance on digital platforms.

Can you share your personal resolution for this year?

This is going to be my 20th year with Deutsche Bank. I want to mark that with getting more involved with Deutsche Bank’s community efforts, here in Singapore and in the region.